Roadmapping: Comparing cases in China and Germanyby Kerstin Cuhls, Meike de Vries, Haili Li, Ling Li

Technological Forecasting and Social Change



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Foresight method nce o nd Te d Inn appi are u serve mutual learning activities in China and Germany and intended

Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2015) xxx–xxx

TFS-18178; No of Pages 13

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Technological Forecastto clarify what is meant when both sides talk about “roadmapping”. Often the word “foresight” (which is in fact a concept) and “roadmapping” are used simultaneously, which leads to confusion by users and readers. Therefore, the starting point was a definition of the term “roadmapping”. The intention of the project's first phase was to generate a template described. The last chapters try to summarize and “compare” the cases. It is evident that a detailed comparison is not possible because of different understandings and that the differences have to be seen in the light of the small sample size— therefore it is attempted to show the variety of approaches used. It also turned out that the understanding of “roadmapping” is very broad in China and encompasses methods that are ratherconducted and which methodologies

Germany, respectively. The projectto “compare” roadmaps in order to be able t data separately on the German and Chinese part of the project was to work out differenc by comparing the categories of the template ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +49 721 6809 141.

E-mail address: (K. C 0040-1625/© 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article as: Cuhls, K., et al., R (2015), in China and d as a basis for to clarify the use of expressions and especially the word “roadmapping” in its context. Different cases are brieflyThe Beijing Research Centre for Scie under the Beijing Academy of Science a

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems an

ISI investigated what kind of roadmthe understanding of the objectives. The way the process is performed differed significantly whereas the differences in the processes themselves, the number of participants or the topic fields were rather similar. In the paper, some of the differences are discussed in context and lessons learned are explained. © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. f Science (BRCSS) chnology and the ovation Research ng processes are summarized in a table and a presentation,whichwas discussed in a face-to-face-meeting in Beijing in August 2012. In a joint report, the differences and similarities derived from the cases chosen were described.

This paper starts off with methodological definitions from both the Chinese and the German research team in orderForesight objectives 1. Introductiondifferent levels like the understanding of the terminology (not only language), cultural understandings, the background of the innovation system and contexts of the roadmaps andForesight

Comparison China and GermanyRoadmapping: Comparing cases in Ch

Kerstin Cuhls⁎, Meike de Vries, Haili Li, Ling Li

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse 48, 7 a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history:

Received 16 January 2014

Received in revised form 4 August 2014

Accepted 9 March 2015

Available online xxxx

Roadmapping in Ch cultural backgrounds roadmapswith foresi

Research Centre for

Technology and the project investigated s of the project was mKeywords:o generate similar sides. The second es and similarities . First results were uhls). oadmapping: Comparing e.2015.03.008and Germany

Karlsruhe, Germany d in Germany has different connotations, contexts, meanings and rder to understand what is meant by roadmaps — and not to confuse general— a comparative analysis was jointly performed by the Beijing ce of Science (BRCSS) under the Beijing Academy of Science and hofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI). This joint l cases according to a set of criteria and compared the content. The aim learning and the results revealed that the differences can be found on ing & Social Changesubsumed under the heading of “foresight” in Germany. 2. Roadmap and roadmapping: definitions and processes

Early in the project it became clear that roadmapping and the methods that are applied in foresight in general are understood differently by the Chinese and German researchers. cases in China and Germany, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change

For the German side, foresight is understood as the “the structured debate about complex futures” (ISI definition derived from different European definitions, see also Cuhls 2012) or as “the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging of generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits” (Martin, 1995a,b), and therefore a conceptwhereas roadmapping is a method, an approach in foresight or better, often used between foresight and planning. Therefore, both sides provided the key definitions from the research area of roadmapping,which was — beyond general language barriers — very important for mutual understanding.

The following roadmapping definitions are used at the

Fraunhofer ISI and are based on the understanding of the research communities. Especially, there is consensus about the generic understanding of roadmap/roadmapping in the 2 K. Cuhls et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2015) xxx–xxxA very brief definition of roadmapping defines it as a process involving different people: “[…], a technology roadmap is […] a graphical representation of technologies, often realized in objects like products or competencies and the connections that have evolved between them in the course of time. The activities required in generating and updating this kind of representation are referred to as technology roadmapping.” (quote Möhrle and Isenmann, 2013). “Roadmapping is a process which contains all activities to create and update a roadmap.” (Möhrle and Isenmann, 2008: 5). “A roadmap is a graphical representation of objects, such as markets, technologies, products or resources, and their linkages over time” (Möhrle and Isenmann, 2008: 5). The roadmap is the result of the roadmapping process. According to this